Todays sunspot number is 198 and NOAA estimate the chance of an M-Class flare at 75% over the next 24 hours and 50% for an X-Class during the same period.
Sunspot AR1748 has once again unleashed a flare, this time a M3 class, not the largest we have seen from this sunspot but its position on the sun disc could make it the most geoeffective so far. You can see the video of the CME leaving the Sun
here.
A minor geomagnetic storm is currently in progress from the CME impact of May 18th, that one caused by a large flare two days ago.
NOAA estimate a 75% chance of geomagnetic storms when the next CME hits on May 19th.