04-12-2006, 07:13 PM
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What is going on here or is this just for the birds
Last night on Coast to CoastAM, a late night talk radio program, the featured guest hatched some ideas that might ruffle some feathers on the bird flu problem. She is convinced that it would probably die out on its own and will not jump to man, unless man provides the �means� for it to do so. Of course researcher are currently working on ways to do just that! Supposedly so they can study it, and then if it does jump to man they should be able to control it. But then there are the health officials that definitely say it is not a matter of if, but rather when, it jumps to man. What is it they know (or are planning) that they are not telling us?
Below is the recap from the C2C site of last night show.
Bird Flu & Vaccines Expert in alternative medicine and founder of OsteoMed II, Dr. Sherri Tenpenny shared an in-depth look at vaccines and bird flu. She views bird flu as an environmental issue rather than a health care crisis. In Asia, a variety of pollutants such as dioxin, pesticides and raw sewage in the water supply can disrupt the immune systems of migratory birds and chickens and make them more susceptible to the H5N1 virus, she explained.
Tenpenny said that the culling of rural chickens and the destruction of small farms is an agenda of multinational agribusinesses who favor "vertical" industrial farming. Their methods include genetically modifying chickens so that their growth cycle is greatly reduced (if humans grew as fast as GM chickens they'd weigh 350 lbs. by the age of two).
Warning about the upcoming H5N1 flu shot, Tenpenny said the cell lines being used for the vaccine may be grown from dog kidneys, caterpillar eggs and other material that will have a strong possibility for viral contamination. Further, she cautioned that the government may eventually make such vaccinations mandatory, linking them with the ability to receive the new National ID card.
BirdFluHype.com
[Don't believe everything you think.]
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04-13-2006, 12:28 PM
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What's the "End Game" for the proposed bird flu?
Everyone has to get a shot. Right?
Let's see.........coupla' billion people.........fifty bucks
a shot........Hmmmmmmm.
Like the monkey said when he pee'd into the cash
register........"This could run into money!"
Wonder who gets the loot?
H
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04-13-2006, 05:19 PM
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You hit the nail on the head, Jack Pine Savage. In a recent news article:
https://apnews.excite.com/article/200...D8GUBBS80.html
One of the high priests at the NIH, Tony "Foolallofthepeopleallofthetime" Fauci has crossed over to my side, by admitting that the bird flu won't be a big deal for us humans after all. Well, of course he can feel free to say that now. All the Tamiflu has already been sold, and lies there mouldering in the warehouses.
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04-13-2006, 06:46 PM
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Skepzilla welcome to the new forum!
As the old adage goes, if you want to know who is really in control just �follow the money�
Now as a side though. How far can a sick dying migratory bird fly?
[I'm confused wait..... maybe I'm not.]
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04-13-2006, 10:34 PM
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I think it's normal human behavior to respond to the threat of a worldwide pandemic exactly the way we see people responding here: (a) denial and (b) belief that it may (not will) happen.
I can understand why people discount the possibility that millions of people may die as a result of a pandemic the likes of which the world has never seen.
I can also understand why people respond with concern and believe the predictions as set forth by reputable sources.
Personally, I apply game theory to the possibility of a worldwide pandemic. Let's look at it this way:
Quote:
In any decision problem, the way the world is, and what an agent does, together determine an outcome for the agent. We may assign utilities to such outcomes, numbers that represent the degree to which the agent values them. It is typical to present these numbers in a decision matrix, with the columns corresponding to the various relevant states of the world, and the rows corresponding to the various possible actions that the agent can perform.
In decisions under uncertainty, nothing more is given � in particular, the agent does not assign subjective probabilities to the states of the world. Still, sometimes rationality dictates a unique decision nonetheless. Consider, for example, a case that will be particularly relevant here. Suppose that you have two possible actions, A1 and A2, and the worst outcome associated with A1 is at least as good as the best outcome associated with A2; suppose also that in at least one state of the world, A1's outcome is strictly better than A2's. Let us say in that case that A1 superdominates A2. Then rationality surely requires you to perform A1.
In decisions under risk, the agent assigns subjective probabilities to the various states of the world. Assume that the states of the world are independent of what the agent does. A figure of merit called the expected utility, or the expectation of a given action can be calculated by a simple formula: for each state, multiply the utility that the action produces in that state by the state's probability; then, add these numbers. According to decision theory, rationality requires you to perform the action of maximum expected utility (if there is one).
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Therefore, I propose to expect the best, but prepare for the worst. That is far better, by my reckoning, than expecting the best and being utterly unprepared for the worst. I don't want to be wrong--dead wrong.
__________________
The Truth is out there...somewhere.
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04-14-2006, 01:11 PM
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There is no question that thinking about �how to� and �being� prepared for a worst-case scenario of bird flu is just common sense. But the problem with the bird flu is much of the information we have is contradictory or simply does not make sense to the normal way of thinking.
�The death toll from a bird flu pandemic in Britain could be more than 700,000, according to a confidential (?) government report.� What are they not telling us?
The CDC has maintained for YEARS that if a vaccine does not a "match" its virus it is "ineffective. This is why we NEEDED a new annual flu vaccine shot. Now they say this is not necessary �close is good enough".
The mass killing of birds would eliminate many independent farmers throughout India, China and Southeast Asia; what becomes of them? Will they become employees, beholding to global agribusiness. Or is that the part of the plan?
And from India some 500,000 birds will be slaughtered within a 1.5-mile radius to check the spread of the virus. "We are looking at a very difficult future. All of us will have to start again from scratch, and we don�t know how many of us will survive," said a member of a Navapur poultry farmers" association. Hmmm Why don�t you come work for us, of course we can�t pay you as much as you made before, but hay at least you will have a job.
What wound happen to the economy and general everyday life if lets say 36,000 people were to die from the bird flu? What do you think would be the response would be from the media, government and the health care organizations?
Then on the other hand what is the response of these same organizations to the fact that 36,000 people die every year from the common flu? Just WHAT IS going on here?
[Question authority before authority questions you.]
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04-14-2006, 04:32 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ruby Tuesday
Personally, I apply game theory to the possibility of a worldwide pandemic.
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Seems like a sensible approach, Ruby. But let's look at the game theory from a much more simple angle: Say you're playing poker (5-card stud). You hold two pairs (sure thing; 100% probability). You see that one of your opponents is showing a broken straight. You know there's only a small probability that his hole card will make the straight complete. Would you really fold, just because of a "worst-case scenario"? I wouldn't.
The chance of a worst-case scenario with bird flu is infinitesimal. The virus must first manage to infect a human (viruses are host-specific). Then this same human host must be infected simultaneously with a human flu virus. Then a mutation must take place whereby one or more strands of RNA from both virus types interchange (reassortment). And finally, the hybrid virus must have the surface properties of the human virus, and be at the same time more virulent than the original. That's heaping small probabilities upon still smaller probabilities. So the likelyhood of a bird flu pandemic is extremely small. Small enough for me to ignore it.
But I hear several voices saying that it would be good to be prepared for the worst. It's as if I hear Chicken Little shout; "The sky is falling!"
But let's say you want to be prepared: What can you do? Of course it makes sense to get some extra food in the house, plus some things that tend to make flu patients feel better. When you're down with (any kind of) the flu, you are too sick to go out to the store. But in one or two weeks it will be all over, provided your immune system is in decent shape. Virus diseases work that way. The body heals itself.
What I definitely don't recommend is taking antiviral drugs (like Tamiflu). They don't interact with the virus at all, but with your body metabolism. And most of them depress the immune system; the very defense you have against invading viruses and bacteria.
And then... a vaccine?? The medical horrormasters of today really have balls, I must admit. First they try to hammer the idea into your head that we're dealing with a rapidly mutating virus. And then they dare to bring up the possibility of developing a vaccine against it. If I had ever spouted such nonsense, I would never have gotten my degree.
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04-15-2006, 05:10 PM
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I disagree that the chances of a pandemic at least as bad as the 1918 pandemic (worst case) are infinitesimal. If pandemics had never occurred before, I'd agree that the possibility would be infinitesimal, but they have occurred before, with disastrous results. The reason that SARS didn't turn into a full blown world wide pandemic is that authorities worked diligently to keep it contained.
https://www.usatoday.com/news/health/...ic-cover_x.htm
Quote:
Many public health officials believe the epidemic could have been much worse � a global pandemic with hundreds of thousands of cases and deaths. Only quick and coordinated action kept the virus from breaking out in the USA and worldwide, they say.
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Will "they" be as successful the next time? No way to tell, so the only reasonable response for an individual is to prepare as if the authorities will fail utterly, as they did in New Orleans. I don't know how many U.S. health officials have to say, "we're unprepared," for its citizenry to accept what they're saying at face value. I sure do believe them when they say they're unprepared.
The problem is that it's far more difficult to prepare when the boot of a full blown pandemic is against your neck. If you think N-3 face masks are going to be plentiful when a pandemic strikes, you don't understand supply and demand. However, you may be able to buy a few from me at a hundred times what I paid for them.
Seriously, it takes relatively little to prepare a game plan for isolating yourself and putting aside provisions sufficient to keep yourself isolated for a few months. The 1918 pandemic lasted 18 months OVERALL�that is, in all nations of the world. In some places, it came through�start to finish�in two months. In various narratives about the 1918 pandemic, it was reported that those who isolated themselves survived. One family had eight kids; the mother would let none of them out the front door. One son, about eight years old at the time, said that he would look out the window and wonder which of his classmates was in the hearses going by. All eight of this mother�s children came through the pandemic unscathed.
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04-15-2006, 05:31 PM
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Speak of the Devil...found this at Drudge Report today.
U.S. Plan For Flu Pandemic Revealed: Multi-Agency Proposal Awaits Bush's Approval
https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...500901_pf.html
Quote:
"Any community that fails to prepare -- with the expectation that the federal government can come to the rescue -- will be tragically wrong," HHS Secretary Mike Leavitt said in a speech April 10. The administration is posting information on the Internet at https://www.pandemicflu.gov .
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04-16-2006, 03:51 AM
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A lie, repeated often enough, becomes a fact.
The Gov't. just keeps pounding this bird flu hoax.
Pretty soon, people are going to demand that
they be given a bird flu shot.
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04-16-2006, 08:08 AM
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Enlightener
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100 times more powerful, 1,000 times safer.
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04-16-2006, 08:49 AM
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Jack Pine, I don't know why you are considering this all a conspiracy theory.
The fact of the matter is that the government is taking action to do what they think and say will protect the people (whether we like it or not or agree with the story or not)
There is no theory on that.
The only theory that is present is in the possibility that the flu will spread from bird to people. I really have no opinion on this. It is only theory to me.
I have prepared for the worst whatever that may be whenever that may be in regard to contagious disease. If the day never comes I will be most glad.
People have always prepared for disaster. This is nothing new. When people don't prepare and it comes that is a sorry thing. Many people don't like to consider that their safe little cocoon of a reality could be blown away. All you have to do is study history to know that these people live in LaLa land.
Why bother to argue with someone who chooses to look at possibilities square in the face and who wish to discuss it on the forum and to prepare for potential realities, if they happen or not. If you don't like the topic of this thread there are other threads to post on.
If the bird flu thing is true or not, it is still a controversial health related issue that is forcing the hand of our government and governments around the world, regardless of the motivating factors seen or unseen.
If you think it is not real perhaps you would post the defense of your position. Anything that can be brought to light regarding the WHO, The United Nations, US government policy, new laws and legislature, scandal, that may shed some revelatory light to the bird flu issue could be appreciated.
Warmly,
Arrow
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04-16-2006, 09:14 AM
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Enlightener
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100 times more powerful, 1,000 times safer.
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04-16-2006, 09:16 AM
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Enlightener
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Well, tell us his story please, Iggy. If he survived and others of the same family didn't, what are you suggesting?
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04-16-2006, 09:44 AM
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I bought his story hook, line, and sinker.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
So, Iggy, what was his story?
Arrow
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